{"engine": "episode-compass", "version": "1.0.1", "reading": {"top_minus_bottom": 12.8, "tails_n": 0, "interpretation": "All class scores run high when today's vector is unstretched \u2014 calm states precede both tops and vol accidents. Read the SPREAD (top-minus-bottom +12.8) and the tail count (0 features |z|\u22651.5). High swan-likeness with ZERO tails means 'calm-before-accident' resemblance (2018-type), not active crisis (2008-type)."}, "generated_at": "2026-07-11T13:10:41.514169+00:00", "today_vector": {"curve_10y3m": {"z": -0.45, "as_of": "2026-06"}, "credit_baa10y": {"z": -0.47, "as_of": "2026-06"}, "real_10y": {"z": -0.74, "as_of": "2026-05"}, "cpi_6m_mom": {"z": 1.0, "as_of": "2026-05"}, "growth_6m_mom": {"z": 0.0, "as_of": "2026-05"}, "unemp_3m_mom": {"z": -0.13, "as_of": "2026-06"}, "real_m2_yoy": {"z": -0.39, "as_of": "2026-05"}, "nfci": {"z": -0.51, "as_of": "2026-07"}, "vix_spliced": {"z": 0.01, "as_of": "2026-06"}, "spx_dist_200dma": {"z": 0.61, "as_of": "2026-06"}, "spx_drawdown": {"z": 0.78, "as_of": "2026-06"}, "spx_12m_ret": {"z": 0.91, "as_of": "2026-06"}, "term_premium": {"z": -0.12, "as_of": "2026-07"}, "sloos": {"z": 0.06, "as_of": "2026-04"}}, "classes": {"TOP": {"score": 87.3, "episodes": [{"date": "2007-10", "label": "GFC top", "similarity": 91.7, "n_features": 14, "matches": 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[{"f": "unemp_3m_mom", "ep_z": 0.15, "today_z": -0.13}, {"f": "term_premium", "ep_z": -0.42, "today_z": -0.12}, {"f": "growth_6m_mom", "ep_z": -0.33, "today_z": 0.0}], "divergences": [{"f": "real_m2_yoy", "ep_z": -2.07, "today_z": -0.39}, {"f": "spx_dist_200dma", "ep_z": -1.37, "today_z": 0.61}, {"f": "spx_12m_ret", "ep_z": -1.79, "today_z": 0.91}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 5.4, "fwd_12m_pct": 17.0}}, {"date": "2002-10", "label": "Dot-com low", "similarity": 72.7, "n_features": 14, "matches": [{"f": "unemp_3m_mom", "ep_z": -0.13, "today_z": -0.13}, {"f": "nfci", "ep_z": -0.38, "today_z": -0.51}, {"f": "term_premium", "ep_z": 0.18, "today_z": -0.12}], "divergences": [{"f": "spx_12m_ret", "ep_z": -1.46, "today_z": 0.91}, {"f": "credit_baa10y", "ep_z": 2.34, "today_z": -0.47}, {"f": "spx_drawdown", "ep_z": -2.37, "today_z": 0.78}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 0.1, "fwd_12m_pct": 45.7}}, {"date": "1990-10", "label": "S&L low", "similarity": 72.6, "n_features": 14, "matches": [{"f": "growth_6m_mom", "ep_z": 0.26, "today_z": 0.0}, {"f": "cpi_6m_mom", "ep_z": 1.3, "today_z": 1.0}, {"f": "curve_10y3m", "ep_z": 0.16, "today_z": -0.45}], "divergences": [{"f": "term_premium", "ep_z": 1.93, "today_z": -0.12}, {"f": "spx_12m_ret", "ep_z": -1.73, "today_z": 0.91}, {"f": "spx_dist_200dma", "ep_z": -2.23, "today_z": 0.61}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 25.6, "fwd_12m_pct": 64.6}}, {"date": "2020-03", "label": "COVID low", "similarity": 68.6, "n_features": 13, "matches": [{"f": "curve_10y3m", "ep_z": -0.64, "today_z": -0.45}, {"f": "real_10y", "ep_z": -1.08, "today_z": -0.74}, {"f": "growth_6m_mom", "ep_z": -0.65, "today_z": 0.0}], "divergences": [{"f": "spx_dist_200dma", "ep_z": -1.12, "today_z": 0.61}, {"f": "credit_baa10y", "ep_z": 1.88, "today_z": -0.47}, {"f": "vix_spliced", "ep_z": 4.54, "today_z": 0.01}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 30.6, "fwd_12m_pct": 72.0}}, {"date": "1974-10", "label": "Nifty bust low", "similarity": 65.3, "n_features": 12, "matches": [{"f": "curve_10y3m", "ep_z": -0.76, "today_z": -0.45}, {"f": "cpi_6m_mom", "ep_z": 1.38, "today_z": 1.0}, {"f": "growth_6m_mom", "ep_z": -0.57, "today_z": 0.0}], "divergences": [{"f": "spx_dist_200dma", "ep_z": -1.85, "today_z": 0.61}, {"f": "spx_12m_ret", "ep_z": -2.27, "today_z": 0.91}, {"f": "nfci", "ep_z": 3.29, "today_z": -0.51}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 7.0, "fwd_12m_pct": 18.0}}, {"date": "1982-08", "label": "Volcker low", "similarity": 63.8, "n_features": 12, "matches": [{"f": "vix_spliced", "ep_z": 0.01, "today_z": 0.01}, {"f": "real_m2_yoy", "ep_z": -0.03, "today_z": -0.39}, {"f": "unemp_3m_mom", "ep_z": 0.56, "today_z": -0.13}], "divergences": [{"f": "real_10y", "ep_z": 2.09, "today_z": -0.74}, {"f": "curve_10y3m", "ep_z": 2.52, "today_z": -0.45}, {"f": "nfci", "ep_z": 3.35, "today_z": -0.51}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 30.7, "fwd_12m_pct": 64.5}}, {"date": "2009-03", "label": "GFC low", "similarity": 44.9, "n_features": 13, "matches": [{"f": "term_premium", "ep_z": -0.39, "today_z": -0.12}, {"f": "growth_6m_mom", "ep_z": -1.2, "today_z": 0.0}, {"f": "real_10y", "ep_z": 0.52, "today_z": -0.74}], "divergences": [{"f": "vix_spliced", "ep_z": 3.39, "today_z": 0.01}, {"f": "credit_baa10y", "ep_z": 4.6, "today_z": -0.47}, {"f": "cpi_6m_mom", "ep_z": -4.08, "today_z": 1.0}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 20.0, "fwd_12m_pct": 56.9}}]}, "BLACK_SWAN": {"score": 86.0, "episodes": [{"date": "2018-02", "label": "Volmageddon", "similarity": 93.9, "n_features": 13, "matches": [{"f": "unemp_3m_mom", "ep_z": -0.13, "today_z": -0.13}, {"f": "nfci", "ep_z": -0.54, "today_z": -0.51}, {"f": "spx_drawdown", "ep_z": 0.83, "today_z": 0.78}], "divergences": [{"f": "growth_6m_mom", "ep_z": 0.5, "today_z": 0.0}, {"f": "term_premium", "ep_z": -0.67, "today_z": -0.12}, {"f": "cpi_6m_mom", "ep_z": 0.28, "today_z": 1.0}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 2.3, "fwd_12m_pct": 3.6}}, {"date": "2018-12", "label": "Powell-pivot purge", "similarity": 83.1, "n_features": 13, "matches": [{"f": 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-0.19, "today_z": -0.12}, {"f": "unemp_3m_mom", "ep_z": 0.15, "today_z": -0.13}, {"f": "growth_6m_mom", "ep_z": -0.35, "today_z": 0.0}], "divergences": [{"f": "spx_dist_200dma", "ep_z": -0.7, "today_z": 0.61}, {"f": "spx_12m_ret", "ep_z": -0.53, "today_z": 0.91}, {"f": "vix_spliced", "ep_z": 3.0, "today_z": 0.01}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 29.5, "fwd_12m_pct": 62.1}}, {"date": "2011-08", "label": "US downgrade", "similarity": 78.8, "n_features": 13, "matches": [{"f": "unemp_3m_mom", "ep_z": 0.01, "today_z": -0.13}, {"f": "growth_6m_mom", "ep_z": -0.17, "today_z": 0.0}, {"f": "cpi_6m_mom", "ep_z": 1.27, "today_z": 1.0}], "divergences": [{"f": "vix_spliced", "ep_z": 1.86, "today_z": 0.01}, {"f": "credit_baa10y", "ep_z": 1.43, "today_z": -0.47}, {"f": "spx_drawdown", "ep_z": -1.25, "today_z": 0.78}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 1.6, "fwd_12m_pct": 18.9}}, {"date": "2010-05", "label": "Flash crash", "similarity": 76.7, "n_features": 13, "matches": [{"f": "term_premium", "ep_z": -0.02, "today_z": -0.12}, {"f": "unemp_3m_mom", "ep_z": -0.27, "today_z": -0.13}, {"f": "spx_12m_ret", "ep_z": 0.61, "today_z": 0.91}], "divergences": [{"f": "curve_10y3m", "ep_z": 1.59, "today_z": -0.45}, {"f": "spx_drawdown", "ep_z": -1.54, "today_z": 0.78}, {"f": "growth_6m_mom", "ep_z": 2.59, "today_z": 0.0}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": -6.3, "fwd_12m_pct": 25.6}}, {"date": "2023-03", "label": "SVB/CS", "similarity": 76.2, "n_features": 13, "matches": [{"f": "unemp_3m_mom", "ep_z": 0.01, "today_z": -0.13}, {"f": "vix_spliced", "ep_z": 0.28, "today_z": 0.01}, {"f": "spx_dist_200dma", "ep_z": 0.26, "today_z": 0.61}], "divergences": [{"f": "spx_12m_ret", "ep_z": -1.2, "today_z": 0.91}, {"f": "real_m2_yoy", "ep_z": -2.61, "today_z": -0.39}, {"f": "cpi_6m_mom", "ep_z": -2.46, "today_z": 1.0}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 12.8, "fwd_12m_pct": 34.0}}, {"date": "2020-03", "label": "COVID crash", "similarity": 68.6, "n_features": 13, "matches": [{"f": "curve_10y3m", "ep_z": -0.64, "today_z": -0.45}, {"f": "real_10y", "ep_z": -1.08, "today_z": -0.74}, {"f": "growth_6m_mom", "ep_z": -0.65, "today_z": 0.0}], "divergences": [{"f": "spx_dist_200dma", "ep_z": -1.12, "today_z": 0.61}, {"f": "credit_baa10y", "ep_z": 1.88, "today_z": -0.47}, {"f": "vix_spliced", "ep_z": 4.54, "today_z": 0.01}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 30.6, "fwd_12m_pct": 72.0}}, {"date": "2008-09", "label": "Lehman", "similarity": 66.7, "n_features": 13, "matches": [{"f": "real_m2_yoy", "ep_z": -0.4, "today_z": -0.39}, {"f": "cpi_6m_mom", "ep_z": 0.77, "today_z": 1.0}, {"f": "term_premium", "ep_z": 0.14, "today_z": -0.12}], "divergences": [{"f": "spx_12m_ret", "ep_z": -1.56, "today_z": 0.91}, {"f": "credit_baa10y", "ep_z": 2.13, "today_z": -0.47}, {"f": "vix_spliced", "ep_z": 2.81, "today_z": 0.01}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": -24.6, "fwd_12m_pct": 1.5}}, {"date": "1987-10", "label": "Black Monday", "similarity": 62.4, "n_features": 12, "matches": [{"f": "unemp_3m_mom", "ep_z": -0.13, "today_z": -0.13}, {"f": "real_m2_yoy", "ep_z": -0.59, "today_z": -0.39}, {"f": "cpi_6m_mom", "ep_z": 0.54, "today_z": 1.0}], "divergences": [{"f": "curve_10y3m", "ep_z": 1.7, "today_z": -0.45}, {"f": "spx_dist_200dma", "ep_z": -2.45, "today_z": 0.61}, {"f": "vix_spliced", "ep_z": 6.56, "today_z": 0.01}], "sequel": {"fwd_3m_pct": 6.6, "fwd_12m_pct": 18.3}}]}}, "swan_checklist": [], "class_scores": {"TOP": 87.3, "BOTTOM": 74.5, "BLACK_SWAN": 86.0}, "methodology": "14 monthly features (curve, credit, real rates, CPI & growth momentum, labor momentum, real M2, NFCI, VIX spliced with pre-1990 realized vol, SPX 200dma distance/drawdown/12m, term premium, SLOOS), z-normalized over full history. Similarity = 100 \u2212 22\u00d7mean|\u0394z| vs each labeled episode (\u22658 shared features). Sequels are real SPX forwards from the deep base.", "ai_brief": {"error": "HTTP Error 400: Bad Request"}, "duration_s": 6.3}