{"engine": "regime-engine", "version": "1.0.0", "generated_at": "2026-07-11T13:05:43.533820+00:00", "duration_s": 3.4, "current": {"quadrant": "STAGFLATION", "as_of_month": "2026-05", "months_in_regime": 3, "previous_quadrant": "DEFLATION-BUST", "growth_6m_momentum": -0.03, "inflation_6m_momentum": 1.28, "liquidity_nfci": -0.5, "liquidity_state": "EASY", "next_3m_probabilities": {"GOLDILOCKS": 6.3, "REFLATION": 17.5, "STAGFLATION": 51.9, "DEFLATION-BUST": 24.3}, "history_share_pct": {"GOLDILOCKS": 21.1, "REFLATION": 27.5, "STAGFLATION": 25.5, "DEFLATION-BUST": 26.0}}, "playbook": {"spx": {"1m": {"GOLDILOCKS": {"n": 150, "median": 1.34, "pos_pct": 60.7}, "REFLATION": {"n": 169, "median": 1.02, "pos_pct": 58.0}, "STAGFLATION": {"n": 163, "median": 0.62, "pos_pct": 56.4}, "DEFLATION-BUST": {"n": 181, "median": 1.99, "pos_pct": 64.6}}, "3m": {"GOLDILOCKS": {"n": 150, "median": 3.4, "pos_pct": 67.3}, "REFLATION": {"n": 169, "median": 4.15, "pos_pct": 69.2}, "STAGFLATION": {"n": 161, "median": 2.18, "pos_pct": 62.1}, "DEFLATION-BUST": {"n": 181, "median": 3.59, "pos_pct": 66.9}}, "unit": "%"}, "ust10y_yield": {"3m": {"GOLDILOCKS": {"n": 159, "median": 0.02, "pos_pct": 52.2}, "REFLATION": {"n": 207, "median": 0.06, "pos_pct": 54.1}, "STAGFLATION": {"n": 191, "median": 0.0, "pos_pct": 49.2}, "DEFLATION-BUST": {"n": 196, "median": 0.05, "pos_pct": 54.6}}, "unit": "\u0394pct-pts"}, "usd": {"3m": {"GOLDILOCKS": {"n": 64, "median": -0.14, "pos_pct": 46.9}, "REFLATION": {"n": 108, "median": 0.52, "pos_pct": 57.4}, "STAGFLATION": {"n": 95, "median": 0.36, "pos_pct": 55.8}, "DEFLATION-BUST": {"n": 108, "median": 0.14, "pos_pct": 51.9}}, "unit": "%"}, "wti": {"3m": {"GOLDILOCKS": {"n": 93, "median": 4.16, "pos_pct": 61.3}, "REFLATION": {"n": 142, "median": 2.31, "pos_pct": 57.0}, "STAGFLATION": {"n": 115, "median": -0.53, "pos_pct": 47.0}, "DEFLATION-BUST": {"n": 133, "median": 2.51, "pos_pct": 56.4}}, "unit": "%"}, "credit_spread": {"3m": {"GOLDILOCKS": {"n": 93, "median": -0.06, "pos_pct": 35.5}, "REFLATION": {"n": 142, "median": 0.0, "pos_pct": 49.3}, "STAGFLATION": {"n": 115, "median": 0.0, "pos_pct": 49.6}, "DEFLATION-BUST": {"n": 133, "median": -0.1, "pos_pct": 32.3}}, "unit": "\u0394pct-pts"}}, "transition_matrix_3m": {"GOLDILOCKS": {"GOLDILOCKS": 51.6, "REFLATION": 25.8, "STAGFLATION": 5.7, "DEFLATION-BUST": 17.0}, "REFLATION": {"GOLDILOCKS": 14.5, "REFLATION": 54.1, "STAGFLATION": 21.7, "DEFLATION-BUST": 9.7}, "STAGFLATION": {"GOLDILOCKS": 6.3, "REFLATION": 17.5, "STAGFLATION": 51.9, "DEFLATION-BUST": 24.3}, "DEFLATION-BUST": {"GOLDILOCKS": 17.3, "REFLATION": 9.7, "STAGFLATION": 20.4, "DEFLATION-BUST": 52.6}}, "regime_strip": [["1996-01", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["1996-02", "STAGFLATION"], ["1996-03", "STAGFLATION"], ["1996-04", "REFLATION"], ["1996-05", "REFLATION"], ["1996-06", "REFLATION"], ["1996-07", "REFLATION"], ["1996-08", "REFLATION"], ["1996-09", "REFLATION"], ["1996-10", "REFLATION"], ["1996-11", "REFLATION"], ["1996-12", "REFLATION"], ["1997-01", "REFLATION"], ["1997-02", "REFLATION"], ["1997-03", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["1997-04", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["1997-05", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["1997-06", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["1997-07", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["1997-08", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["1997-09", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["1997-10", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["1997-11", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["1997-12", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["1998-01", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["1998-02", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["1998-03", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["1998-04", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["1998-05", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["1998-06", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["1998-07", "STAGFLATION"], ["1998-08", "STAGFLATION"], ["1998-09", "STAGFLATION"], ["1998-10", "STAGFLATION"], ["1998-11", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["1998-12", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["1999-01", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["1999-02", "STAGFLATION"], ["1999-03", "STAGFLATION"], ["1999-04", "STAGFLATION"], ["1999-05", "REFLATION"], ["1999-06", "REFLATION"], ["1999-07", "REFLATION"], ["1999-08", "STAGFLATION"], ["1999-09", "STAGFLATION"], ["1999-10", "REFLATION"], ["1999-11", "REFLATION"], ["1999-12", "REFLATION"], ["2000-01", "STAGFLATION"], ["2000-02", "REFLATION"], ["2000-03", "REFLATION"], ["2000-04", "REFLATION"], ["2000-05", "STAGFLATION"], ["2000-06", "STAGFLATION"], ["2000-07", "STAGFLATION"], ["2000-08", "STAGFLATION"], ["2000-09", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2000-10", "STAGFLATION"], ["2000-11", "STAGFLATION"], ["2000-12", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2001-01", "STAGFLATION"], ["2001-02", "STAGFLATION"], ["2001-03", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2001-04", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2001-05", "STAGFLATION"], ["2001-06", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2001-07", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2001-08", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2001-09", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2001-10", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2001-11", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2001-12", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2002-01", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2002-02", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2002-03", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2002-04", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2002-05", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2002-06", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2002-07", "REFLATION"], ["2002-08", "REFLATION"], ["2002-09", "REFLATION"], ["2002-10", "REFLATION"], ["2002-11", "REFLATION"], ["2002-12", "REFLATION"], ["2003-01", "REFLATION"], ["2003-02", "REFLATION"], ["2003-03", "REFLATION"], ["2003-04", "STAGFLATION"], ["2003-05", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2003-06", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2003-07", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2003-08", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2003-09", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2003-10", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2003-11", "REFLATION"], ["2003-12", "REFLATION"], ["2004-01", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2004-02", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2004-03", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2004-04", "REFLATION"], ["2004-05", "REFLATION"], ["2004-06", "REFLATION"], ["2004-07", "REFLATION"], ["2004-08", "REFLATION"], ["2004-09", "REFLATION"], ["2004-10", "REFLATION"], ["2004-11", "STAGFLATION"], ["2004-12", "REFLATION"], ["2005-01", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2005-02", "REFLATION"], ["2005-03", "REFLATION"], ["2005-04", "REFLATION"], ["2005-05", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2005-06", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2005-07", "REFLATION"], ["2005-08", "REFLATION"], ["2005-09", "STAGFLATION"], ["2005-10", "STAGFLATION"], ["2005-11", "STAGFLATION"], ["2005-12", "STAGFLATION"], ["2006-01", "STAGFLATION"], ["2006-02", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2006-03", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2006-04", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2006-05", "STAGFLATION"], ["2006-06", "STAGFLATION"], ["2006-07", "STAGFLATION"], ["2006-08", "REFLATION"], ["2006-09", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2006-10", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2006-11", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2006-12", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2007-01", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2007-02", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2007-03", "STAGFLATION"], ["2007-04", "STAGFLATION"], ["2007-05", "REFLATION"], ["2007-06", "REFLATION"], ["2007-07", "REFLATION"], ["2007-08", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2007-09", "STAGFLATION"], ["2007-10", "STAGFLATION"], ["2007-11", "STAGFLATION"], ["2007-12", "STAGFLATION"], ["2008-01", "STAGFLATION"], ["2008-02", "STAGFLATION"], ["2008-03", "STAGFLATION"], ["2008-04", "STAGFLATION"], ["2008-05", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2008-06", "STAGFLATION"], ["2008-07", "STAGFLATION"], ["2008-08", "STAGFLATION"], ["2008-09", "STAGFLATION"], ["2008-10", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2008-11", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2008-12", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2009-01", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2009-02", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2009-03", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2009-04", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2009-05", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2009-06", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2009-07", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2009-08", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2009-09", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2009-10", "REFLATION"], ["2009-11", "REFLATION"], ["2009-12", "REFLATION"], ["2010-01", "REFLATION"], ["2010-02", "REFLATION"], ["2010-03", "REFLATION"], ["2010-04", "REFLATION"], ["2010-05", "REFLATION"], ["2010-06", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2010-07", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2010-08", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2010-09", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2010-10", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2010-11", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2010-12", "STAGFLATION"], ["2011-01", "STAGFLATION"], ["2011-02", "STAGFLATION"], ["2011-03", "STAGFLATION"], ["2011-04", "STAGFLATION"], ["2011-05", "STAGFLATION"], ["2011-06", "STAGFLATION"], ["2011-07", "STAGFLATION"], ["2011-08", "STAGFLATION"], ["2011-09", "STAGFLATION"], ["2011-10", "REFLATION"], ["2011-11", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2011-12", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2012-01", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2012-02", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2012-03", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2012-04", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2012-05", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2012-06", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2012-07", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2012-08", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2012-09", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2012-10", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2012-11", "STAGFLATION"], ["2012-12", "STAGFLATION"], ["2013-01", "STAGFLATION"], ["2013-02", "STAGFLATION"], ["2013-03", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2013-04", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2013-05", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2013-06", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2013-07", "STAGFLATION"], ["2013-08", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2013-09", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2013-10", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2013-11", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2013-12", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2014-01", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2014-02", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2014-03", "STAGFLATION"], ["2014-04", "REFLATION"], ["2014-05", "REFLATION"], ["2014-06", "REFLATION"], ["2014-07", "REFLATION"], ["2014-08", "REFLATION"], ["2014-09", "REFLATION"], ["2014-10", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2014-11", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2014-12", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2015-01", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2015-02", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2015-03", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2015-04", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2015-05", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2015-06", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2015-07", "STAGFLATION"], ["2015-08", "STAGFLATION"], ["2015-09", "STAGFLATION"], ["2015-10", "STAGFLATION"], ["2015-11", "STAGFLATION"], ["2015-12", "STAGFLATION"], ["2016-01", "STAGFLATION"], ["2016-02", "STAGFLATION"], ["2016-03", "STAGFLATION"], ["2016-04", "STAGFLATION"], ["2016-05", "REFLATION"], ["2016-06", "REFLATION"], ["2016-07", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2016-08", "REFLATION"], ["2016-09", "REFLATION"], ["2016-10", "REFLATION"], ["2016-11", "REFLATION"], ["2016-12", "REFLATION"], ["2017-01", "REFLATION"], ["2017-02", "REFLATION"], ["2017-03", "REFLATION"], ["2017-04", "REFLATION"], ["2017-05", "REFLATION"], ["2017-06", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2017-07", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2017-08", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2017-09", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2017-10", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2017-11", "REFLATION"], ["2017-12", "REFLATION"], ["2018-01", "REFLATION"], ["2018-02", "REFLATION"], ["2018-03", "REFLATION"], ["2018-04", "REFLATION"], ["2018-05", "STAGFLATION"], ["2018-06", "REFLATION"], ["2018-07", "REFLATION"], ["2018-08", "REFLATION"], ["2018-09", "REFLATION"], ["2018-10", "STAGFLATION"], ["2018-11", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2018-12", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2019-01", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2019-02", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2019-03", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2019-04", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2019-05", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2019-06", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2019-07", "STAGFLATION"], ["2019-08", "STAGFLATION"], ["2019-09", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2019-10", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2019-11", "STAGFLATION"], ["2019-12", "STAGFLATION"], ["2020-01", "STAGFLATION"], ["2020-02", "REFLATION"], ["2020-03", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2020-04", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2020-05", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2020-06", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2020-07", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2020-08", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2020-09", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2020-10", "REFLATION"], ["2020-11", "REFLATION"], ["2020-12", "REFLATION"], ["2021-01", "REFLATION"], ["2021-02", "REFLATION"], ["2021-03", "REFLATION"], ["2021-04", "REFLATION"], ["2021-05", "REFLATION"], ["2021-06", "REFLATION"], ["2021-07", "REFLATION"], ["2021-08", "REFLATION"], ["2021-09", "REFLATION"], ["2021-10", "STAGFLATION"], ["2021-11", "STAGFLATION"], ["2021-12", "STAGFLATION"], ["2022-01", "STAGFLATION"], ["2022-02", "REFLATION"], ["2022-03", "REFLATION"], ["2022-04", "STAGFLATION"], ["2022-05", "STAGFLATION"], ["2022-06", "STAGFLATION"], ["2022-07", "STAGFLATION"], ["2022-08", "STAGFLATION"], ["2022-09", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2022-10", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2022-11", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2022-12", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2023-01", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2023-02", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2023-03", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2023-04", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2023-05", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2023-06", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2023-07", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2023-08", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2023-09", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2023-10", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2023-11", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2023-12", "REFLATION"], ["2024-01", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2024-02", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2024-03", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2024-04", "STAGFLATION"], ["2024-05", "STAGFLATION"], ["2024-06", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2024-07", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2024-08", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2024-09", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2024-10", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2024-11", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2024-12", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2025-01", "REFLATION"], ["2025-02", "REFLATION"], ["2025-03", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2025-04", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2025-05", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2025-06", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2025-07", "GOLDILOCKS"], ["2025-08", "REFLATION"], ["2025-09", "REFLATION"], ["2025-11", "REFLATION"], ["2025-12", "REFLATION"], ["2026-01", "STAGFLATION"], ["2026-02", "DEFLATION-BUST"], ["2026-03", "STAGFLATION"], ["2026-04", "STAGFLATION"], ["2026-05", "STAGFLATION"]], "n_months_classified": 754, "first_month": "1963-07", "signals_logged": 0, "methodology": "Growth (INDPRO+payrolls YoY composite) \u00d7 Inflation (CPI YoY), each by 6m momentum \u2192 4 quadrants monthly since the 1960s; NFCI liquidity overlay. Playbooks are measured forward distributions per quadrant (real n) for SPX, 10y yields, USD, WTI, credit spreads \u2014 plus the historical 3m transition matrix. The conductor: every engine, brief and hedge decision can condition on this one state."}